17.2.09

Slovenly

slov·en·ly 
adj.
1. Untidy, as in dress or appearance.
2. Marked by negligence; slipshod. 

9.2.09

Part 4--Maß und Mitte


These periods of relatively rapid growth followed by periods of relative economic stagnation are known as the business cycle. It is an inherent part of the capitalist system.

Some examples of the business cycle are listed above such as the Wall Street crash in 1929 followed by the Great Depression,
the huge real estate bubble in Japan in 1980's followed by the "lost decade". Or the Dot Com bubble/Real estate bubble followed by this period of recession that we are currently experiening.

At the beginning of each of these cycles, wealth, jobs and happiness is created through hard work, creativity, late hours and ingenuity.

Yet, years later this wealth, happiness and employment which people had laboured so hard for, is inevitably snatched from grasp as we reach the top of upward swing and enter the downward shift of the business cycle.

Thus, those additional hours that were spent in the office on a Saturday morning instead of watching their kids football match in order to get that promotion amounts to nothing.

However, the severity and the frequency of these upturns and downturns can be reduced by protecting the weak through social and economic order, as highlighted by
Wilhelm Röpke, thus ensuring that the Saturday morning in the office was not worthless. This can be achieved through interventions that will accelerate and soften the adjustment process. These interventions will occur through methods that are compatible with the market economy.

As a consequence citizens and companies feel more secure, confident and happier about the future. This confidence ensures that both individuals and citizens do not make stupid and reckless decisions that are purely based on short term thinking and a lack of security. Instead, the existence of economic and social order allows citizens to be prudent and more balanced in their decision making.

Part 3--The Collapse Of The Housing Bubble


06/05/2005 - -------------------- 24/03/2007 -------------------------------04/10/2008

The above actions of the Federal Reserve in the aftermath of dot com bubble and the 9/11 terrorist attacks allowed the US economy to avoid a severe economic slowdown

However, once the housing market bubble imploded the Federal reserve was unable to find another medium that would allow the economy to operate at its full potential because consumer and business confidence was so low, the levels of debt they were carrying are so great, and personal saving rates were minimal.


Today, consumers and business are more concerned with paying off debt instead of buying Channel hand bags and new equipment. Employment thus falls as does the use of existing capital stock.

As we continue to pay back the debt, the values of our houses collapse, our pension funds crumple, unemployment soars and the economy may become deflationary. This will result in debt becoming relatively greater and becoming even harder to repay resulting in even greater levels of savings.

Part 2--The Beginning Of The Housing Bubble


24/03/2001                                  21/04/2001                               30/03/2002

Following the collapse of the dot com bubble , the American and world economy experienced a significant slow down. For example, $10 trillion was wiped off global share values from 2000 to 2001, the net worth of American households fell in 2000 for the first time since records began 55 years ago and America's corporate sector suffered its deepest recession since the 1930s

Moreover, the Japanese economy, the second biggest economy in the world at time was on the verge of re-entering a recessionary and deflationary period.

This economic situation was destabilized further by the September 11th terrorist attacks.


In order to avoid a deep recession and t
o stimulate economic growth in light of these events, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the federal reserve cut interest rates from 6.5 % in November 2000 to 1.75% in July 2002.

These reductions allowed credit to become cheap and easy to obtain. For example, in 2003, there was wide spread promotion of mortgages with low introductionary rates. All this cheap money filtered into other sectors of the American economy and allowed consumers to go shopping once more.

Perhaps, the economist magazine put it best when it wrote of these interest rates reductions " as one bubble burst, another started to inflate. "

Part 1--Economic Bubbles:Boom and Bust



On the 10th of March 2000, the NASDAQ index reached 5132.52. This was its peak value and was more then double the value of index from the previous year.

This represented the end of one of greatest bull markets of our modern time.
From then, the market began a steady decline downwards. Even today, the NASDAQ has never returned to those heady heights.

The
reason for the metamorphosis of market sentiment is unknown. It could of been related to the negative findings of the United States V Microsoft case which was being heard in the Federal Court. Or the reduction in spending by companies on information communication technology following the passing of the Y2K switchover deadline.

The conclusion of the unrelentless upward advance of the New York Stock Exchange in October 1929 is equally unknown. It could of been caused by the refusal of the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities to allow Boston Edison to split its stock into four highlighting in its decision that "due to the action of speculators" stock levels had reached a level" where no one in our judgement... on the basis of earnings, would find it to his advantage to buy". Or by some negative comments by economists in the press at the time.

These bubbles were created by rising share prices commonly in new emerging markets such as internet or radio companies. These rising prices encouraged more people to invest in the hope that the share price would rise further. These investments were not based on economic fundamentals such as price earnings ratios but on stupid speculation. This caused further rises and resulted in the creation of massive economic bubble.

When these bubbles finally collapsed, significant social and economic costs developed. These included large unemployment, wealth destruction, the collapse of consumer confidence and the start of a deflationary spiral as was the case during the great depression.