21.5.08

George Soros on market equilibrium

Presently, George Soros is on a book tour promoting his new book.George Soros,  In the book he questions neo-classical economics where markets reach a state of equilibrium where buyers and sellers are content.

His main argument is that the neoclassical economics that postulates that markets tend to equilibrium is nonsense. He founds this view on what he calls the theory of reflexivity, which broadly says that use of scientific methodology in economics is wholly inappropriate, because economic agents cannot avoid influencing the outcomes they forecast.

If markets do not find equilibrium and thus are as likely to overshoot on the way up as they are on the way down, then should governments interfere to avoid the euphoria on the way up (i.e. during the dot com boom the peak, at March 2000 the Nasdaq was 5,132.52 ) and the despair on the way down (i.e. dot com boom collapse, in which by October 2002 the NASDAQ lost 78% of its March 2000 valuation)

However, by interfering in this way governments will limit and reduce the possibility of economic growth and thus vast improvements of standard of living and income are unlikely.

Instead,we would perhaps become a France or Germany, every year we  would just limp along with 1% economic growth. 

Would citizens be happy with this?


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